goods and service tax
Published on 4 April 2025
GST Revenue Trends and Evasion Insights: Analysis from 2019-24
Introduction
The Ministry of Finance has provided insights into the GST revenue collection targets and actual collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2023-24. The analysis reveals that collections have consistently aligned with budget estimates, reflecting enhanced compliance efforts over the years. This report also highlights various cases of GST evasion and measures implemented to combat them.
GST Revenue Collection Overview
From FY 2019-20 to FY 2023-24, GST collections have varied between 79.5% and 110.8% of the budget estimates. Notable improvements in compliance have been recorded during this period.
Net Central GST Collection Performance
| Financial Year | Budget Estimates (BE) | Revised Estimates (RE) | Actual Collection | % of BE Achieved | % of RE Achieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | ₹6,63,343 crore | ₹6,12,327 crore | ₹5,98,749 crore | 90.3% | 97.8% |
| 2020-21 | ₹6,90,500 crore | ₹5,15,100 crore | ₹5,48,777 crore | 79.5% | 106.5% |
| 2021-22 | ₹6,30,000 crore | ₹6,75,000 crore | ₹6,98,114 crore | 110.8% | 103.4% |
| 2022-23 | ₹7,80,000 crore | ₹8,54,000 crore | ₹8,49,132 crore | 108.9% | 99.4% |
| 2023-24 | ₹9,56,600 crore | ₹9,56,600 crore | ₹9,57,208 crore | 100.1% | 100.1% |
GST Evasion and Recovery
Since 2020, the Central Government has identified a significant number of GST evasion cases that have resulted in substantial tax recoveries.
Total Number of GST Offense Cases
| Period | No. of Cases | Detection (₹ Cr.) | Voluntary Deposit (₹ Cr.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 12,596 | 49,384 | 12,235 |
| 2021-22 | 12,574 | 73,238 | 25,157 |
| 2022-23 | 15,562 | 1,31,613 | 33,226 |
| 2023-24 | 20,582 | 2,30,332 | 31,758 |
| 2024-25 (up to January, 2025) | 25,397 | 1,94,938 | 21,520 |
Total Evasion Cases: 86,711 with Tax Recovered: ₹6.79 lakh crore
Total Number of ITC Fraud Cases
| Period | No. of Cases | Detection (₹ Cr.) | Voluntary Deposit (₹ Cr.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 7,268 | 31,233 | 2,232 |
| 2021-22 | 5,966 | 28,022 | 2,027 |
| 2022-23 | 7,231 | 24,140 | 2,484 |
| 2023-24 | 9,190 | 36,374 | 3,413 |
| 2024-25 (up to January, 2025) | 13,018 | 46,472 | 2,211 |
Total ITC Fraud Cases: 42,673 with Tax Recovered: ₹1,66,241 crore
Government Measures for Compliance Improvement
The Central Government, along with GSTN, has implemented several measures to enhance compliance and prevent tax evasion, including:
- Digitization through E-invoicing: Streamlining transactions to reduce fraud.
- GST Analytics: Utilizing automated risk assessments that identify compliance discrepancies.
- Risk-Based Audit Selection: Prioritizing audits for taxpayers with higher risk attributes.
- Project Anveshan: Employing advanced tools like facial recognition and data analysis for early detection of fraudulent activity.
These measures aim to close systemic gaps and reinforce revenue collection. However, evaluating the exact impact of such initiatives remains complex due to various influencing factors, including global economic conditions and domestic consumption patterns.
Conclusion
While the measures taken by the Central Government have contributed to an increase in revenue collections and a reduction in GST evasion, attributing these outcomes solely to specific initiatives remains difficult due to the multifaceted nature of tax compliance and revenue generation.